Well, today didn’t amount to much in the way of tornadoes and after a hectic night at work of NHL games, a brief glance at the reports doesn’t show anything too substantial.  Kind of disappointing because I thought this was going to set up for a pretty nice episode of severe weather.  Timing is everything and we didn’t get the right ingredients to mix at the right time thus only yielding a squall line, hail and wind.

10/05 is starting to look like a possible chase day.  Plus, it’s on a Monday so I could make a run on it as I have the day off.  I admit to looking at Mondays models for literally 2 minutes so I haven’t really done any forecasting on it yet, BUT western Kansas looks like a very preliminary target to me.  We’ll see as the weekend gets closer and I get a chance to sit down and have a serious look at the models.  I’m super desperate to get out at least one more time before winter is here for good!  Wish cast ahoy!

***10/03 UDATE*** Things for Monday are starting to look like a no-go for me.  Models are starting to get more consistent and unfortunately, they stall this system out too far south for me to make a 1 day trip.  Plus the areas with the best shear have almost no CAPE to work with.  Like Thursday, the right ingredients aren’t lining up, so we will see if anything changes over the next day or so, but currently its looking like a wash for me.

Scott

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