Greetings from the one and only Garden City, KS! Yeah, I got smart and decided to travel tonight to get in better position for storms tomorrow in western Oklahoma. It’ll be nice to not have to get up at 3am to get to the target area.
So, I’ve just checked in to the Holiday Inn Express (which even has a nice ass flat screen HD TV in it. Not too shabby) and have had a glance over some of the models and tomorrow looks pretty potent. SPC has gone with a moderate risk (45% hail hatch, still only a 5% tornado hatch) in northwest Oklahoma. By 21z tomorrow, CAPE of 2000 j/Kg and day time temps of 85-90 degrees, will have easily eroded the cap and storms will be easy to get. I’m glad I shouldn’t have to worry about the cap but a free-for-all isn’t the greatest either. Lots of cells all at the same time make picking the right one kind of like a lottery. Just hope you get lucky.
The lapse rates are indeed very steep, so I can see why the hail hatch is so high. Storm motion tomorrow should be to the southeast, so my plan is to get out ahead of the dryline and wait for them to come to me. The dryline should set up in western Oklahoma very near the Texas panhandle border. The WRF shows what I was afraid of; lots of storms all at the same time right at 22z.
I think the tornado threat is decent but it will come down to being on the right cell. How long can cells stay discrete before lining out? Most models show the line out happening pretty quick. I am setting my initial target as Buffalo, OK which is only a few hours from here, so getting down there should be no problem at all. Tony Laubach is going to be out on this chase as well and he’s shacked up in Amarillo for the night. I’m guessing I’ll probably see him out there at some point!