Quickie Forecast 8/9/11

Alright, time for a chase!  Tomorrow presents great potential up on the I-80 corridor in the Nebraska Panhandle.  As usual, there’s a bunch of good parameters and as always, a few potential fly’s in the ointment.  It’s Summer, so I can’t complain too much.  Upslope flow will be in place along the Laramie mountains where storms should eventually move off onto the plains.  As storms move further southeast, they will move into a fairly unstable environment with CAPE at or near 2000 J/kg.  The dryline bulges in the Nebraska panhandle near Scottsbluff and sets up in a southeast orientation from there down through northeast Colorado and into portions of western Kansas.  The focus for strongest storms will be along the 80 corridor near the Nebraska/Wyoming border.  A cold front will move through as well which will likely be our trigger.  0-1km EHI values are strongest south of 80 into NE Colorado and that should be where tornado potential is highest where low level shear veers.  The cap concerns me but almost all models eventually break out precip in the afternoon, so that’s good enough for me.  Good to go!

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