Archive for the ‘Forecast & Outlook’ Category

Possible Colorado Chase Saturday 5/15?

Looking at the latest forecast models for Saturday shows a potentially interesting setup in the SE corner of Colorado.  It’s a bit of a flyer but might be worth a drive down if the following can hold up… Further south, perhaps all the way to the Pecos Valley near the TX/NM border could be interesting [...]

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Final April 22nd Forecast…(Why leave home?)

***All Day of Updates will be on the Real-Time Chase Page!!!*** Wow, this just got a lot more convenient!  Our initial target of the OK/TX panhandle area is still certainly in play tomorrow and should see some supercells, but we’ve determined that while the storms down south may be more picturesque, the tornado threat is [...]

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April 11, 2010 Forecast…

ALL ‘DAY OF’ UPDATES WILL BE IN THE REAL-TIME CHASE PAGE!!! I will be heading out tomorrow to chase and right now a target area is a bit hard to nail down.  Frustratingly the NAM and GFS have both been in the ball park of each other but definitely not in full agreement on some [...]

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April 5 Target

All “day of” updates will be posted in the Real-Time Chase Page… It is going to be a super, super early departure Monday morning around 5AM and the tentative plan is to go for the SE NE/SW IA target.  Yes, you heard me correctly, Iowa!  Our dryline/triple point play (as illustrated in the earlier forecast [...]

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10/01 Squalled & 10/05 Possibilities..

Well, today didn’t amount to much in the way of tornadoes and after a hectic night at work of NHL games, a brief glance at the reports doesn’t show anything too substantial.  Kind of disappointing because I thought this was going to set up for a pretty nice episode of severe weather.  Timing is everything [...]

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10/01 Could Be Big/Other Updates…

Thursday October 1st has the potential to be a decent chase day in the central plains.  A nice cold front will move through CO on Thursday which will ignite some severe weather out in front of it.  There are a lot of positives working for this episode including strong wind shear, plenty of moisture return, [...]

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Downgrading 9/21 Potential…Sunday Maybe?

Looks like a long drive to Oklahoma on Monday is not in the cards for me personally.  In order for me to dedicate a multiple day chase, there would have to be a significant tornado threat.  Looks like wind/hail will be the primary threat down there.  Yup, MCS city.  So I’ll leave that to our [...]

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Possible Hurricane Chase??!

Well, probably not.  BUT hurricane Jimena is on target to hit the Baja Coast early Thursday morning and then move almost directly north to guess where?  San Diego!   Exactly the place where I’ll be enjoying 5 days of vacation starting on?  You guessed it; Thursday morning.  Hopefully Jimena will make landfall and move back [...]

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Busted Saturday, Still Possibilities for Sunday and Monday

Headed out today around 1:30 after sorting out an electrical issue at my house and made it to Bennett and sat for awhile praying for the cap to break.  That didn’t happen.  Tony Laubach and Dann Cianca were out chasing together today and met me in Bennett and we all decided to team up and [...]

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7/05/09 Forecast

It’s not the ideal setup, but I have the day off, I haven’t been out in almost two weeks, and I think there’s a good chance at some severe storms.  First, the good news; diurnal heating throughout the day should give us around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, so the atmosphere should destabilize in the early [...]

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